PERFORMANCE 2021

The year 2021 stands as a recovery year from Covid-19 pandemic as demand for palm oil saw a rising tendency, but production was relatively stagnant due to various factors, such as weather, limited supply of fertilizer and manpower shortage. For Indonesia, the production of crude palm oil(CPO) in 2021 reached 46.888 million tons or 0.31% lower than that of 2020 at 47.034 million tons. The weather and limited fertilization in 2019 and 2020 were suspected as the factors that have caused the decrease of production in Indonesia.

The local consumption of palm oll in 2021 reached 18.422 million tons or 6% higher than that of 2020 at 17.349 million tons. The consumption for foods rose by 6%, oleochemical rose by 25% and biodiesel increased by 2% from that of 2020. The consistency of the Indonesian government in implementing the mandatory program of biodiesel affected the supply of CPO and the export market of other vegetable oils.

In 2021,Indonesia's export of palm oil products, consisting CPO, processed CPO, palm kernel oil(PKO), oleochemical(including those of the code of HS2905,2915,3401and 3823)and biodiesel(code of HS3826)reached 34.2 million tons or an increase of only 0.6% from the export in 2020 at 34.0 million tons. The low increase of exports was caused by limited supply, high price and the lower spread between the price of palm oil and other vegetable oils, especially soybeans. In terms of monthly, Indonesia's export in 2021 was very fluctuating. The Covid-19 pandemic had heavily impacted the demand for palm oil from the importing countries, due to the decrease of consumption and restrictive import regulations in several countries.

Despite export volume only increased by 0.6% from 2020 to that of 2021, the export value in 2021 reached US$35 billion or 52 % higher than the export value in 2020 at US$ 22.9 billion (BPS data, export value of fats and vegetable oils of the code of HS 15 reached US$32.8 billion). The high increase of export value was supported by average prices during 2021 that reached US$1,194 per ton or 67% higher than the average prices in 2020 at US$715.

PROSPECT 2022

The price of vegetable oils in December 2021 was higher than that of December 2020,but lower than that of November 2021. During January 2022,the price of vegetable oils tends to rise again. The price fluctuation is caused by factors of uncertainty in production and demand of the vegetable oils.The production of oilseed in 2022 is projected to be abundant despite dry season in South America still stands as a factor that should be considered carefully as it is potential to reduce productivity. The abundant production of oilseed will not directly increase the supply of vegetable oils due to several factors. The unattractive price of oilmeal will become one hindering factor,besides the recovery of oilseed stock which had been depleted in 2021.

The production of palm oil in 2021 showed an anomaly. The production in second semester, which usually saw higher production than that of the first semester, was lower than expected. As a result,the production in first semester 2022 will stand as an indicator whether the production decrease will continue or it will increase.The limited fertilization in 2021 due to a shortage and price increase will affect productivity and production in 2022.

Extreme wet weather, which occurred early in 2022, will not only affect production during the first semester, but also during the second semester of 2022. The CPO production in 2022 is projected to reach 49 million tons. while PKO production will reach 4.8 million tons, so that total production of CPO+PKO will reach 53.8 million tons, or an increase of 4.87% compared to the production in 2021 at 51.3 million tons.

The domestic consumption will be heavily influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, the total local consumption for foods increased by 6%,oleo-chemical rose by 25% and biodiesel up by 2%. In 2022, the consumption for foods is projected to increase at almost the same rate to around 800 thousand tons/month(9.6 million tons/year). The consumption for oleochemical in 2021 was stagnant during the last six months at around 180 thousand tons/month and is estimated to continue in 2022, so that consumption for oleochemical is projected to reach 2.16 million tons/year.The consumption for biodiesel relies on the government's mandatory program. Based on the government's program in 2022, the mandatory program of B30 will push the consumption for biodiesel at around 8.83 million tons.Therefore, the local consumption in 2022 is estimated ar around 20.59 million tons.

With the production of 53.8 million tons and local consumption at 20.59 million tons, then the volume for exports is estimated at 33.21 million tons or around-3% lower than that of 2021.

Jakarta,28 January 2022

Indonesian Palm Oil Association(IPOA)